21.4: Crime Risks

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In 2018, Bessemer, AL was ranked the most dangerous city in America, with a violent crime rate of 29.8, and a one in thirty-four chance of being a victim.

What are your chances of being the victim of a crime? It depends on many factors: how old you are, where you live, what risks you take. It is possible to break the statistics down for each of these categories, but we won’t go into that level of detail here. Two general types of statistics are relevant in thinking about crime: crime rate and victimization rate. Crime rate tracks number of crimes reported relative to a population, while victimization rates track victims of crimes relative to a population. The figures aren’t extremely precise, because many crimes go unreported, but they are in the ballpark. Criminologists prefer to focus on victimization rates, because in focusing on victims, we can get more nuanced and precise data, but also, as you likely expect given what you have learned in past chapters, it focuses our attention on people, as opposed to more abstract concepts.

It is important to be clear about the difference between a crime rate and a victimization rate. A crime rate tells us what percentage of people commit a given type of crime, e.g., how many people commit assault. A victimization rate tells us what percentage of people are victims of a given type of crime, e.g., how many are assaulted.

Violent crimes have been decreasing over the past several decades, but they are still a very real risk in many parts of America. In 2018, there were just over 16,000 homicides (considerably less than the number of suicides), about 735,000 rapes, and over half a million robberies. But when you think about risks from crime, you will be more interested in victimization rates. The following table gives the victimization rates in 2018 for several violent crimes; the figures report the number of victimizations per 1,000 persons.

Screenshot (100).png — Figure \(\PageIndex{1}\): Victimization Rates for 2018

But these statistics vary a great deal for different groups. Your chances of being robbed if you work the night shift at the 7-11 are much higher than the national average. Your chances of being murdered if you live in the inner city are much higher than average. The victims of most crimes are most likely to be black, female, poor, young, (12-24), and urban.

Exercises

Express the figures in the table of victimization rates (Figure 21.4.1 on the preceding page) in terms of probabilities.
Find the victimization rates for homicide and arson (use the internet)