20.2: Formulating Hypotheses

The first thing we need to do when engaging in scientific investigation is formulate a hypothesis. A hypothesis is an idea or claim that we think might be true and we want to investigate further. Philosophers of science refer to the forming of that first idea or hypothesis as the context of discovery. Ideas can come from anywhere, and as a result there is no methodology for developing a hypothesis. Why you developed a hypothesis will be a function of your psychology, your interests, the regional and historical context you are in, and so forth. In the (fictional) account you probably remember from grade school, Isaac Newton was said to have been struck on a head with an apple. For whatever reason, this made him wonder if there might be fundamental forces at work that control motion. Why? Who knows? This event was the context of discovery for Newton’s theory of gravity.

With that initial idea in place, we move to the context of justification. It isn’t enough that we have an idea that we think might be true, we need that idea to be one that we can test in order to justify it. Phrasing the hypothesis as a claim that can be determined to be false through testing is important. Smoking causes cancer, an object in motion remains in motion unless an outside force acts upon it, and social distancing reduces Covid-19 transmission are all examples of testable hypotheses.