13.3.6: Causal Inference
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Here is an example of a causal inference that is not inductive. Drinking a cup of vodka causes people to get drunk within ten minutes. Ten or fifteen minutes ago he drank a cup of vodka. So, he's drunk by now. The conclusion follows with certainty, doesn’t it?
Here is an example of a causal inference that is inductive. A screwdriver is a mixed drink of vodka and orange juice. I’ve never noticed anybody walking funny after they’ve drunk plain orange juice, but everybody I’ve seen who has drunk two screwdrivers within a half hour has walked sort of wobbly when they’ve stood up. I think drinking vodka affects a person’s ability to walk.
The next chapter is devoted to this type of inductive argument.