17.2: Process: Critical Thinking and Problem Solving

1. Analyze the Audience. The study may be driven by higher headquarters or your own observations on areas for improvement. In either case, there will be political and operational constraints: do some reflective thinking about the operating environment.
2. Limit the problem. Manage the size of the task by setting the who, what, when, why and how of the situation. Narrow the problem statement: do not include unnecessary concerns. Vague or fuzzy problem statements lead to unacceptable reports.
   For example, if the problem is the use of amphetamines and barbiturates among junior Airmen, the problem statement "To reduce the crime rate on base" would be too broad. So would "How to detect and limit the use of dangerous drugs on base." More to the point would be "To detect and end the causes of amphetamine and barbiturate use among the junior Airmen at Wright-Patterson AFB." The problem should eventually be stated in one of three ways:
   1. As a question (What should we do to ...?)
   2. As a statement of need or purpose (The base needs to be able to detect ...)
   3. As an infinitive phrase (To detect and end the causes of ground mishaps ...)
3. Analyze the Whole Problem. Do the parts suggest other problems that need separate handling or do the parts relate so closely to the whole that you need only one approach?
4. Gather Data. Collect all information pertinent to the problem. (Tips on how and where to conduct staff research can be found in chapter 4).
5. Evaluate Your Information. Is the information from reliable witnesses? Is it from qualified authorities? Does it qualify as solid support?
6. Organize Your Information. One way to organize information is to place it under headings titled "Facts," "Assumptions" and "Criteria."
   • Facts should be facts, not opinions or assertions. Identify only those facts that directly bear on the problem.
   • Assumptions are important because they are always necessary. To reduce a research project to manageable size, it is usually necessary to accept certain things as being true, even if you are not absolutely sure. The validity of your assumptions usually has a great deal to do with the validity of your conclusions. Sometimes desired conclusions can be supported with certain unrealistic assumptions. In evaluating research, seek out the assumptions and make some judgment as to how reasonable they are. If you feel they are unrealistic, make whatever assumptions you feel are correct and try to judge their effect on the conclusions of the study. Sometimes a perfectly logical study explodes in your face because your assumptions were incredibly weak or simply not supportable.
   • Criteria are those standards, requirements or limitations used to test possible solutions. The criteria for a problem-solution are sometimes provided in complete form by your boss when you are assigned the problem. Sometimes criteria are inherent in the nature of the obstacle causing the problem. The obstacle can only be overcome within certain physical limits, and these limits will establish the criteria for the problem-solution. In most cases, however, criteria are usually inherent in your own frame of reference and in the goal you are trying to attain. This goal and frame of reference will tolerate only certain problem-solutions, and the limits of this tolerance will establish the criteria for the problem-solution.
     Any criteria will not be very useful if you cannot clearly test the possible solutions against them! Since weak or irrelevant criteria are often seen in problem-solution reports, let’s examine three examples of criteria and assess their value.
     • "The total solution must not cost more than \(\$ 6,000\) annually."
     • "The solution must result in a 75 percent operationally ready (OR) rate."
     • “The solution must be consistent with the boss’ philosophy on personnel management."
       
       Criterion one is fine; you could easily "bump" your proposed solutions against a specific cost. Criterion two looks good on the surface, but OR rates result from numerous, complex variables. You probably could not guarantee the decision maker your "solution" would lead to a 75 percent OR rate. It might improve the OR rate or actually lead to a rate higher than 75 percent, but before your boss actually implements your solution, how would you know that? If a criterion cannot be used to test solutions before implementation, it is not an acceptable criterion. Criterion three isn’t bad, but it’s fuzzy. Perhaps it could be written more precisely or left off the formal report altogether. You could still use it intuitively to check your solutions, but realize when you use "hidden" criteria, your report will be less objective.
7. List Possible Solutions. Approach the task of creating solutions with an open mind. Develop as many solutions as possible. The "brainstorming" technique using several knowledgeable people is a popular approach to generating possible solutions.
8. Test Possible Solutions. Test each solution by using criteria formed while gathering data. Weigh one solution against another after testing each. Be sensitive to your personal biases and prejudices. Strive for professional objectivity.
9. Select Final Solution. Select the best possible solution-or a combination of the best solutions-to fit the mission. Most Air Force problem-solutions fall into one of the three patterns listed below. Do not force your report into a pattern where it does not fit.
   1. Single best possible solution. This one is basic and the most commonly used. You select the best solution from several possible ones.
   2. Combination of possible solutions. You may need to combine two or more possible solutions for your best possibilities.
   3. Single possible solution. Rare; stand ready to defend why there are no alternatives.
10. Act. Capture the actions required for the final solution. Your comments here may lead to the specific action(s) your boss should take to implement the solution (written into the "Action Recommended" portion of the report). If there is no implementing document for the decision maker to sign, specify what other action the boss must take to implement the proposal. No solution is complete until action has been planned and executed.

In actual practice, the steps of problem solving do not always follow a definite and orderly sequence. The steps may overlap, more than one step may be considered at one time, or developments at one step may require reconsideration of a previous step. For example, the data you collect may force you to redefine the problem. Similarly, while testing solutions, you may think of a new solution or, in the process of selecting a final solution, you may discover you need additional information. In short, problem-solving may not be linear but all the steps should be considered and investigated.