34.1: Appendix- Pretest

Circle the number that you think gives the best answer to each question. Don’t agonize over the questions but give each a serious answer. Disregard the numbers in brackets (e.g., [8]); this just refers to the chapter that deals with the question.

1. Suppose that you toss a fair coin several times. Which of the following sequences of heads (H) and tails (T) is most likely?) [13 & 16]
   1. HHHHHTTTTT
   2. HTTHTHHHTH
   3. They are equally likely.
2. Suppose someone has fallen and is bleeding. Which of the following do you think is most likely? [23]
   1. People would be most likely to help if they were the only person around.
   2. People would be most likely to help if they among several other people around.
3. Are there more 6 letter English words (a) ending in ‘ing’ or (b) with ‘n’ as their fifth letter? [16]
   1. There are more ending in ‘ing’.
   2. There are more with ‘n’ as their fifth letter.
   3. There are the same number of each sort of word.
   4. It is impossible to tell without counting all the English words.
4. If you were a juror, you should: [7 & 8]
   1. Place a good deal of weight on eyewitness testimony.
   2. Place some, but not a huge amount, of weight on eyewitness testimony.
   3. Not place much weight on eyewitness testimony at all.
5. Which alternative seems most likely to occur in the next ten years? [16]
   1. An all-out nuclear war.
   2. An all-out nuclear war that accidently develops out a confrontation in the Middle East involving Iraq, Iran, and some of their neighbors and that then spreads out of the region to other countries?
6. Which is the more likely cause of death? [17 & 21]
   1. homicide
   2. suicide
7. Which is the more likely cause of death? [17 & 21]
   1. fire
   2. drowning
8. About how many people would need to be sampled to make a reasonably accurate prediction (say within 5 percentage points) about who U.S. voters prefer for President (suppose that there are about 100 million voters)? [15]
   1. about five thousand
   2. about five hundred thousand
   3. about five million
   4. more than five million
9. Suppose a normal student signed up to be a subject in a psychological experiment. When they arrived, the experimenter asked the student to administer a series of ever more painful shocks to another subject who showed up at the same time. [22]
   1. Most subjects would not administer any shocks at all.
   2. Most subjects would just administer a few shocks but quit before they got to the extremely painful ones.
   3. Most subjects would administer shocks but quit as soon as the other subject screamed in pain.
   4. Many subjects would continue to administer ever more painful shocks, even after the other subject screamed in pain and disclosed they had a heart condition.
10. Sally and Bob have had five children, all of them boys. They would like very much to have a girl. [16]
    1. They should go ahead and have another child, because by the “law of averages” things are likely to even out, and they will probably have a girl.
    2. They have always had boys, so they would probably have a boy again.
    3. The chances of having a girl and the chances of having a boy are virtually the same.
11. Which of the following alternatives—1 or 2—do you prefer? [18]
    1. a 100% chance of losing $50
    2. a 25% chance of losing $200, and a 75% chance of losing nothing
12. There are two hospitals in Belleville, KS. About 50 babies are born every day in the larger one, and about 15 are born every day in the smaller one down the street. On average, 50% of the babies are boys, but the number bounces around some from day to day. Which hospital, if either, is more likely to have more days per year when over 65% of the babies born are boys? [15]
    1. The big hospital
    2. The small hospital
    3. The two hospitals should be about the same.
13. Suppose that you have a pack of special cards, each of which has a letter [either a consonant or a vowel] on one side and a number [either even or odd] on the other. If you have some of the cards lying flat on a table, which ones would it be relevant to turn over if you were trying to disprove the following claim? [3] Cards with vowels on one side always have odd numbers on the other side.
    1. Cards with consonants and cards with even numbers on them.
    2. Cards with vowels and cards with even numbers on them.
    3. Cards with consonants and cards with odd numbers on them.
    4. Cards with vowels and cards with odd numbers on them.
    5. You need to turn over all the cards.
    6. None of the above.
14. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy in college. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Which of the following is most likely? [16]
    1. Linda is a bank teller.
    2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
15. Exactly two cab companies operate in Belleville, KS. The Blue Company has blue cabs, and the Green Company has Green Cabs. Exactly 85% of the cabs are blue and the other 15% are green. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. A witness, Wilbur, identified the cab as a green cab. Careful tests were done to ascertain peoples’ ability to distinguish between blue and green cabs at night. The tests showed that people identified the color correctly 80% of the time, but they were wrong 20% of the time. What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was indeed a green cab, as Wilbur says? [17 & 28]
    1. Very likely, almost 100%.
    2. The chances are about 85%.
    3. The changes are about 40%.
    4. Less than 10%.
16. Which conclusion (a, b, etc.) follows best follows from premises 1 and 2? [2]
    1. No members of the ad-hoc committee are women.
    2. Some U.S. Senators are members of the ad-hoc committee.

Therefore:

1. All U.S. Senators are women.
2. No U.S. Senators are women.
3. Some U.S. Senators are women.
4. Some U.S. Senators are not women.
5. None of the above really follow from the two premises.

17. The grade school in Belleville, KS administers an achievement test to all the children who enter fifth grade. At the end of the school year they give the same test again. The average score each time is 100, but something odd seems to have happened. Children who scored below average on the test the first time tend to improve (by about five points), and children who scored above average tend to do worse (by about five points). What’s going on? [16]
    1. When the two groups interact, their members influence the other group (high scorers pull up low scorers and low scorers pull down high scorers).
    2. The two groups probably don’t affect each other’s abilities very much, but each group may affect the way the other group takes tests.
    3. This is simply the sort of thing one should expect in a situation like this.
18. Mike is 5’2”, muscular, and in excellent physical condition. He was a college athlete and is aggressive. Although one can’t be sure, which of the following two is more likely? [17]
    1. Mike is a banker.
    2. Mike is a pro football player.
    3. They are about equally likely.
19. Visual perception: [4]
    1. works very much like a video camera (or video tape recorder).
    2. is not much like a video camera at all.
20. How likely (probable) is it that your vote could determine the outcome of a U. S. Presidential election? [13 & 26]
    1. Quite likely
    2. Somewhat likely
    3. Not very likely, but still possible
    4. No real chance whatsoever
21. There are three doors in front of you. There is nothing worth having behind two of them, but there is a suitcase containing $50,000 behind the third. If you pick the correct door, the money is yours. You choose door number 1. But before the host of the game show shows you what is behind that door, he opens one of the other two doors, picking one he knows has nothing behind it. Suppose he opens door number 2. This takes 2 out of the running, so the only question now is about door 1 and door 3. He allows you to reconsider your earlier choice: you can either stick with door 1 or switch to door 3. What is the probability that the money is behind door 3? [14 & 27]
    1. 1/3
    2. 2/3
    3. 1/2
    4. There is no way to tell
22. Which conclusion (a, b, etc.) follows best follows from premises 1 and 2: [2]
    1. No U.S. governors are members of the Rotary Club.
    2. Some Canadian premiers are members of the Rotary Club.

Therefore:

1. All Canadian premiers are U.S. governors.
2. No Canadian premiers are U.S. governors.
3. Some Canadian premiers are U.S. governors.
4. Some Canadian premiers are not U.S. governors.
5. None of the above really follow from the two premises.

23. Wilbur is on his way to class and encounters someone slumped over in a doorway. The person is obviously in distress and needs help. Suppose you had to predict whether Wilbur would stop and help. Which single piece of information would help you make the most accurate prediction? [23]
    1. You would need to know a good deal about Wilbur’s personality and traits to make a very good prediction.
    2. You would need to know if Wilbur was in a hurry or not.
24. Suppose that you are an excellent chess player and Wilbur is good, but not as good as you. [16]
    1. You would have the best chance of beating Wilbur in a best of seven series.
    2. You would have the best chance of beating Wilbur in a best of three series.
    3. Your chances of beating Wilbur would be the same in either case.
25. It takes about eleven days for a million seconds to tick off. Roughly how long does it take for a billion seconds to tick off? [16 & 20]
    1. About 8 to 10 weeks
    2. Between 6 and 11 months
    3. 2.5 years 4. 32 years 5. 8,000 years
26. A number of college students participated in an experiment. They were divided into two groups. Each subject was tested with just themselves and an experimenter present. The students in the first group were asked nicely by a warm, friendly experimenter to eat several fried grasshoppers on a plate in front of them (to help her gather data for her dissertation). Those in the second group were pressured by a cold, aloof experimenter eat several grasshoppers. Most subjects in both groups ate several grasshoppers. Later they were asked by a third person how much they liked the grasshoppers. What do you think happened? [19]
    1. Those who had been asked by the nice friendly experimenter said that they liked the grasshoppers more than those in the other group.
    2. Those who had been pressured by the cold, unfriendly experimenter said that they liked the grasshoppers more than those in the other group.
    3. On average, subjects in the two groups reported liking the grasshoppers about the same.
27. A group of men (the members of a club in Belleville, KS) consists of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers. Suppose that we select Marcos at random from the group. The following is true of Marcos: Marcos is a 30-yearold man, married, with no children. He has high ability and high motivation, and promises to be quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his colleagues. Based on this: [17]
    1. It is more likely that Marcos is an engineer.
    2. It is more likely that Marcos is a lawyer.
    3. Marcos is equally likely to be an engineer or a lawyer.
28. When it comes to learning the material in a course: [7 & 8]
    1. Tape recording the lectures is a good way to learn.
    2. Tape recording the lectures is a hopeless way to learn.
    3. Tape recording the lectures works about as well as most other methods.
29. Which of the alternatives, 1 or 2, do you prefer? [18]
    1. An insurance policy with a $50 premium that protects you against losing $200.
    2. A 25% chance of losing $200, and a 75% chance of losing nothing.
30. In five seconds or less give you best estimate of: 12345678 [17]
    1. about 512
    2. about 2250
    3. about 11,00
    4. about 40,000
    5. About 200,000